Unemployment Survey: Buy-side takes more bearish outlook for 2H09 - FBR Capital

FBR Capital conducted the second quarterly buy-side unemployment survey, and expectations for the unemployment rate at the end of '09 are decidedly more bearish, their clear consensus is now for 10.1-10.5% unemployment by the end of '09 (82% expect unemployment to reach 10-11% by yr end). They note investors expect the rate of change in unemployment to peak in 2H09; however, overall expectations for the timing and magnitude of the peak are largely in line with last quarter's survey. Buy-siders are basically split, with 55% believing the unemployment rate will surpass 11% and 45% expecting unemployment to stay south of 11%. In a shift from last quarter, buy-siders now expect unemployment to peak in 2Q10, pushed back from expectations of a 4Q09 peak.
Briefing.com

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